"تاريخ الحرب الكبرى استنادًا إلى وثائق رسمية. الحملة في بلاد الرافدين ١٩١٤-١٩١٨. مجلد I" [ظ‎‎١‎٣‎٢] (٤٥٤/٢٦٩)

240 HISTORY OF THE WAR : MESOPOTAMIA
Ourna from attack from the north and at the same time
guarding the oil supply as directed in your telegram of
24th May. He (i.e., Nixon) reports that this operation
will begin on 31st May.
“ Its progress should give him data which will enable
him to give us better the information you now request.
We feel however that while military operations are actually
in progress and in present quite uncertain military situation
in Lower Mesopotamia it would be undesirable and even
dangerous to tie him down with precise orders which
might not fit in with the local situation which confronts
him. He may possibly find himself opposed by superior
military forces on the Tigris which may impose on him a
defensive attitude or he may find himself strong enough
to dominate situation. But neither he nor we can yet say.
“ We therefore think it desirable for the present not to
alter our original instructions to him which were sent you
by post on 7th April, except in so far as they have been
modified by your subsequently received directions and in
particular those which directed safeguarding of pipe-line,
i.e., your telegram of 24th May. Under the original
instructions, he will, as soon as he is in a position to do
so, submit a plan for the occupation of the Basra vilayet
which includes Amara. This he will do with a far more
complete knowledge of the local situation than is now
available and we will then report to you for further orders.
We should not propose to authorise any advance beyond
Amara, for which his force is not adequate.”
In addition to the chance that we might have to face further
risings of Arabs instead of looking for effective co-operation
from them, there were other reasonsr which at this stage
influenced the India Office in adopting a cautious policy in
Mesopotamia. Persian affairs were in a critical state; the
German Minister was almost complete master of the situation
at Tehran ; and the attitude of the Bakhtiaris was giving
some anxiety. Such a state of affairs was very likely
to react on the situation in Afghanistan,* and also in India
where, though the position was rather more reassuring owing to
the precautionary measures that had been taken, there were still
many causes for anxiety. The Turks were also now threatening
Aden. But most important of all, perhaps, was the question
* During May reports reached H.M. Government from various sources
that parties of Turkish and German officers were well on their way to
Afghanistan.