File 3579/1916 'Turkey: the future of Constantinople' [‎71r] (150/530)

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\ THE STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE OP CONSTANTINOPLE TO
THE BRITISH EMPIRE.
1. Constantinople, in which term is included the Straits of the Dardanelles and the
Bosphorus, derives its strategic importance from its dual capacity of (a) a land bridge
and, (b) a sea passage.
In its former capacity it will always provide, as it has in the past, a route for waves
of invasion between Europe and Asia. In its latter capacity it gives access to the main
door of Russia and to an important line of advance on India.
2. To realize the above it is merely necessary to make a cursory examination of
history. On the collapse of the Byzantine Empire the resultant wave of invasion carried
the Turks across the causeway of Constantinople to the gates of Vienna, as well as
into Southern Russia as far as Poland and Tzaritsin. The subsequent decline of the
Turkish Empire produced a gradually increasing vacuum in the Near East, dammed by
the Balkan bridgehead. This may now be said to be complete, owing to the final
collapse of Turkey in the present war as a Great Power.
There have been two notable attempts to fill this vacuum whilst in process of
formation : (a) The Russian tide, the first appearance of which was the advance on the
Black Sea inaugurated by Peter the Great. This was seriously penetrating the
Turkish Empire until it was brought to a standstill by (b) The Germanic tide, the set of
which is marked by the action of Bismarck and Lord Beaconsfield when they secured the
amendment of the treaty of San Stefano by that of Berlin.
3. The ebb of Turkey and the combined pressure of these rival Germanic and
Russian efforts forced into being the block of Balkan States which in 1914 represented
the western bridgehead of Constantinople, and it was, at least partly, the Germanic
assault on Serbia which caused the present war.
4. The above historical sketch shows sufficiently the importance of
Constantinople as a land communication between Europe and Asia.
o It has been mentioned that the original Turkish invasion, after reaching the
Bosphorus, crossed the Black Sea into Southern Russia, and when the Russian tide
first set towards the Black Sea the action of Peter the Great in the formation of the
Russian Navy brings into historical prominence the importance of Constantinople as a
sea passage. Of this the importance has also been accentuated in the present war by
the Dardanelles campaign. The failure to open the Straits may be said to have been
one of the main causes for the present state of Russia. Had the other Entente powers
been able to maintain communication with Russia through the Black Sea it is probable
that there would have been no collapse of Russia and that she would now be a great
organized power in being.
5. Though the above two attempted invasions of Asia Minor by the land and sea
passage through Constantinople have failed, the law of the vacuum is inexorable, and
unless the autochthonous states of Arabia, Armenia and Trans-Caucasia can satisfy
this vacuum, we must face an inevitable flow of invasion from Europe into Asia Minor.
What form this invasion will take it is early to prophesy, but the Germanic
population of Europe still numbers 90,000,000, French ambitions have been
re-awakened, and above all, a powerful and ambitious Slavic State in the name of
Greater Serbia is being formed. Perhaps we have the most to fear from the last
named for it does not seem that Bulgaria alone will be able to stand between this State
and Constantinople, and the present policy of Italy tends to alienate Greater Serbia
from the Entente. At the same time the inability of the Entente to give practical
help to Russia during the war and since the revolution may well result in an anti-
Entente orientation of Russian policy in the future..
Therefore, from the broadest point of view the importance of Constantinople to
an Empire such as ourselves, with great interests in the East, is clear, and it is there
that any future naval expansion based on a reconstructed Russia must be tnrottled.
(B18/502) 150 12/18 H&S 6690wo