'P. 3 733/1904. Muscat :- Commercial Treaties.' [‎310v] (206/286)

After long discussion and the examination of reports from the
'Chambers of Commerce, it has become evident that the opinion of the
influential commercial men of the country is strongly against any
radical change in the tariff. The principal reason for this is that, in
spite of the fact that the protectionist system was much exaggerated in
framing the actual tariff, a steady improvement continues in foreign
trade and the Portuguese home industries are still profitable to their
owners, so that those interested prefer not to run any risks with new
tariffs.
It is probable, therefore, that no radical change will be made in the
Portuguese tariff for the present. In these circumstances it becomes
important that the most-favoured-nation treatment should he accorded
to British trade.
At the actual time, Spain, Holland, Norway and Sweden, Itussia,
Denmark, Belgium, and the United States have commercial conventions
with Portugal, based on mutual concessions in favour of articles of
special interest to these countries.
Although British trade with Portugal continues to be satisfactory,
and the trade of Portugal with these treaty countries is not of primary
importance to England, it is necessary that Great Britain should have
the same trading facilities as other nations. With the large 'general
trade bet’ween Great Britain and Portugal, it is undesirable to attempt
to favour any special branch of trade at the expense of another, so that
there would be no object in a commercial convention on the lines of
those already entered into by Portugal with other countries.
The proposed commercial convention, as drafted in A! ay 1898, still
remains suitable to the requirements of British interests, and as the
projected minimum tariff is abandoned, there should be no serious
objection in Portugal to an agreement on this basis.
The real difficulty appears to be the anxiety of the Portuguese
Government to keep a free hand in the negotiation of commercial
conventions with Germany and Erancc. These negotiations have long
ago reached an advanced stage, but it appears that in Portuguese
opinion the general progress made by the country in the last two years
has altered the conditions under which they Avere being carried on. No
immediate result can therefore he looked for.
It is reported, however, that the German Go\'ernment is anxious to
enter into a temporary commercial agreement for the next few years,
and that the negotiations for this purpose, although approaching
conclusion, aAvait certain modifications to be made in the Customs
Tariff.
The Portuguese Government may, therefore, be still unAvilling to
conclude the proposed commercial convention with England.
Under any circumstances, taking into consideration the present
public feeling in Portugal towards England, and the fact that nearly
one-third of the Avhole trade of Portugal is with Great Britain, it would
be unfortunate to allow the settlement of the commercial relationship
between the two countries to be indefinitely postponed.
A commercial convention between England and Portugal is now the
more urgent, as it Avould prepare the way for a favourable solution
of the important tariff questions that must arise in the near future
regarding ports, railways, and boundaries in the British and Portuguese
colonies in South Africa.
Lisbon,
5th January 1900.