'Persia. Note on the memorandum by Sir M Durand on the situation in Persia - HC 1274 of 1895 [L/PS/3/349].' [‎32v] (2/4)

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The personal character of the Vali Ahd must also be considered. Our
reports seem to show that he is absolutely dependent upon Russian influence,
but at the same time his English doctor, Dr. Adcock, has some influence over
him. He is moreover a weak man and of vacillating character. Were he
to succeed, and were Russia not to advance troops or occupy Persian territory,
he would, it is feared be only a puppet in the hands of Russia. His
generosity or weakness have left him very poor.
3. In the position of affairs described, three courses of policy may be
considered :—
i. To restore vigour and honesty to the administration and so escape the
fear of revolution. It is generally admitted that nothing which we
can do, or which Russia will let us do, can now effect that result.
Nevertheless, Sir M. Durand’s proposal to convert the Regie debt
is a measure in that direction.
ii. To increase our influence over the Vali Ahd. That, no doubt, is
possible, and Sir M. Durand’s proposals (a), (b), (c), and (d) are
devised with that object.
iii. To rely less upon reform or the acquisition of an influence over the
Vali Ahd than upon our own independent action and preparations.
If Persia is running upon the rocks of Russian intervention or
Russian protectorate, we can strengthen our position in the south
and be ready to intervene or protect that portion of Persia. The
proposals (e), (/), (g), and (h) look that way, and other measures
may be suggested.
4. The first course .—It seems admitted by Sir Mortimer, and in accordance
with facts, that the reform of Persian administration from within is not to
be expected. The evil is past cure. Yet any relief from pecuniary
embarrassment must lighten the sinking ship of State, and the Regie debt
could be converted, and Persia relieved. Nevertheless, the proposal seems
to me opposed to our principles. To liquidate part of the debts of a spend
thrift does not often improve his character or position. This country does
not usually give guarantees for foreign debts. In any case, the security of
Persia, if it is so near its end, must be very bad. I do not see how Sir
Mortimer’s proposal could possibly be justified in Parliament. I pass on to
the next course.
5. The second course.—It is reasonably certain that the Vali Ahd will
succeed to the throne, and it is possible that Persia may not then, or at
once, be dismembered. Obviously, a British influence over the future
ruler of Persia is worth something. I therefore discuss the proposals {a)
to (d).
(a) A plan of operations with Persia which would make it clear to the
Vali Ahd and the Persians that England and Russia together
ensured his peaceful succession would, no doubt, increase our
influence. But as Russia knows full well that she has now a
commanding influence throughout Persia, and an exclusive control
over the North, I cannot see why she should sacrifice the result and
gains of her persistent action for many years. She has previously
declined to be drawn into a common undertaking, and I presume
that she will persist in following her own independent line without
a dual engagement.
(b) No doubt a &.C.B. can be given whenever Lord Salisbury desires, but
its effect will not, I fancy, be momentous.
(c) The allowance proposed for Dr. Adcock, who is a persona grata to the
Vali Ahd, is not likely to be needed for long, as the Shah is now
close upon 65 years of age. The proposal is inexpensive and
worthy of acceptance I think.
(d) The addition to the salary of our Consul-General at Tabriz, the
commercial emporium of Persia, and situated on its busy north
west frontier, will still leave the British representative ill-paid
compared with the Consul-Generals of other nations. But it seems
a move in the right direction in a country where a man’s im«