'Report on the British Indian Commercial Mission to South-Eastern Persia during 1904-1905. By A H Gleadowe-Newcomen.' [‎11r] (26/176)

MISSION TO SOUTH-EASTERN PERSIA FOR 1904-1905. 9
Russian Turkistan to the Russian port of Eatoura. These used to pass through
Yezd by way of Bander Abbas, ibis diversion was due to the desire to avoid the
heavy import duties on goods going into Russian territory through Persia and
to the tact that sea transit and shorter land transit combined to render the
importation of tea into Transcaspian Provinces and Notkern Persia an easier
matter by this route than by the old route via Bander Abbas and Yezd.
Fluctuations in Trade—
In Persia, as in India, the yearly fluctuations of trade depend chiefly on
meteorological conditions, and on the consequent economic position of the
people. In years of scanty rainfall and failing crops the people, whose “ margin
ot solvency is even smaller than that of similar classes in India (owing to
their wants being greater and to the uncertainty of the pecuniary demands that
may be made on them), have perforce to reduce expenditure to its lowest limits
contenting themselves with the bare necessities of life. This economy has an
immediate effect on trade, as, for instance, during 1900 and 1901, when the
winter rams, on which the life of Persia depends, practically failed. There
was then a consequent and immediate shrinkage of the already too scanty culti
vation all through Southern Persia, which region has not yet recovered from
the effects of the drought, and a corresponding shrinkage in Persian trade.
These fluctuations, which are often due to purely internal and local causes, are
very violent, and render comparison between the trade of the country, in
any two years, of small value. Before any really valuable conclusions can be
drawn, figures concerning the trade of Persia must be studied over
extended periods of time, and with them the meteorological records.
•Another fruitful cause of extraordinary fluctuations is when markets are
suddenly depleted of stocks, owing to unforeseen orders from inland a very
easy matter in a country like Persia, where communication between places is a
matter of weeks, and sometimes of months. It must be remembered, too, that
forethought is not a strong point amongst Persian traders, and that these
depletions^ are not uncommon. Stocks as a consequence have to be replenished,
and there is a sudden increase in trade.
Such statistical enquiries are, however, not very easy in Persia, where,
before the establishment of the Belgians in the Customs Department, accounts
were very loosely kept by the Customs farmers, whilst matters were further
complicated by false declarations and by systematic frauds. Further, no central
organization or bureau existed, from which dependable information could be
procured. The task will be simplified in the future however, for the Customs
authorities now issue carefully compiled and elaborate statistical reports.
As duties are no longer levied ad valoi em, but according to a very com
plicated system of weighment, these figures will, of course, be more valuable
for quantities than for values. At the same time it must be acknowledged,
vdth gratitude, that the administration are endeavouring to ensure, as far as
careful valuation can, accuracy in this latter respect.
Judging from reliable critical estimates, and from the figures given in
consular reports, it is evident that the trade of Persia, alike in imports and
exports, has increased, within the last few years, by from 15 to 20 per cent.
This increa se has, however, been for tlie most part in the n orth of the country
and ihTTRusiovPersian trade. British trade has also increased within the last
few years, but^ to only a very small extent. The average increase has not
been in proportion to the increased trade of Russia, while the figures for 1903-
1901 show a decrease, as compared with the figures for 1902-1903.
Indian trade, so far as can he gathered from figures obtained at the Gulf
ports, has fluctuated, but has, on the whole, advanced somewhat, though not
much. This will be seen by a reference to the statistics at the end of this report.
There is so far as I have been able to discover, little or no reason for this
stagnation. It is true that the new Customs Tariff, to which England had to
submit, was very carefully drawn up by Russia to ensure practically free entry
for her own goods and the imposition of unfairly high duties on goods imported
from the British Empire. Nevertheless, now that it has been accepted, no
more unannounced changes or penal discriminatory duties are possible, and
calculations can be based accordingly.