File 1283/1913 Pt 5 'MESOPOTAMIA TRADE Issue of new Trade Report' [‎106v] (208/270)

merchants to export and they have done their best with cereals and opium and
minor products. There are no indications that Eussian merchants have made
appreciable inroads into British exports.
^British^trade° Wer • ^ Commissioners are not of opinion that the trade
situation in Persia Before the war was such as to justify the gloomy conclu
sions which Mr. Lloyd drew from the import and export tables submitted with
his Note. British trade, owing no doubt largely to cause’s beyond the control
of British merchants, remained stagnant and failed to develope fresh markets
or increased consumption, but in the main it held its own, in spite of very
grave disadvantages, in the area which it had previously exploited against
Eussian trade. There are no symptoms of “deep-rooted disease” and given a
return of favourable conditions a robust recovery may be anticipated enabling
fulfilment of the main commercial requirements within the former snhcrp
bounded by the Khaniqin-Seistan line.
Again, British trade has not really suffered from the methods adopted for
fostering Eussian trade, and even the Persian tariff, which taxes Eussian
imports so much more lightly than British, cannot be said, during the past six
years at least, to have produced much prejudicial effect. The selling prices of
Eussian and British goods of the same class at inland markets where tiiey meet
are governed by the violent fluctuations and enormous increases of rates of
inland transport, and differential tariff treatment for the moment is of small
importance. The customs duty on exported wheat and barley in the south was
reduced in 1910 without any objection from Eussia and a drawback of duty
was also granted on imported sacks when used for the exportation of cereals.
The Persian tariff cannot, therefore, be considered to have handicapped
the cereal export which depends, first and last, on good harvests and facility of
communications. Similarly, the value of opium has risen so much since 1901
that the export duty has probably had very little effect on shipments. The
tariff presses very heavily on a few articles such as tea, spices, coffee and liquor
and this point is dealt with separately later. The Persian tariff, although
complicated, does not afford much ground for complaint by British merchants
except in so far as it encourages the smuggling of particular articles in
preference to payment of unfairly heavy duty. The old system of taxation by
value m Persia permitted much greater opportunity for bribery and corruption
than the existing tariff. 1
Russia’s natural
advantages.
On the other hand, the progress of Eussian trade was natural and uniform
and there is good reason for supposing that its volume must always, or at all
events for a very long time to come, be far greater than that of British trade.
Ihe preponderating advantages which Eussia possesses in the matter of
physical situation renders it almost inevitable that future increases should be
shared between the two countries, not equally but in the proportions observed
in the increases of past years, that is to say, roughly 2 to 1 in favour of
Eussia. We cannot, however, grudge this superiority to Eussia, and Eussian
merchants would, on the other hand, have valid cause for complaint if we made
a determined bid for the trade of the rich northern markets which are Eussia’s
by ngnt of contiguity. There is plenty of room for both British and Eussian
trade in Persia and so long as British merchants can retain their grasp upon
the markets in which they have hitherto held sway they have no rio-ht to
grumble if Eussian trade, more advantageously situated, expands in the north
more rapidly than their own in the south.
SSh“aTupon f F ° r ma .?y y eavs P ast , 14 h ? s been realised that the development of
communications. .Drillsn traue with rersia is dependent primarily on the improvement of com-
mumcations. All other measures which have been proposed from time to time
ior the encouragement of commerce are of quite subsidiary importance.
Of the seven avenues * by which British Irade enters Persia Nos, 1, 6 and
* vide margin paragraph 67 . require but brief notice. The route via
. . Trebizond is likely to concern us less and
ess as time goes on, since it will presumably be controlled by Eussia.
Juord Lurzon estimated the British trade by this route at about £610,000 in 1889.
ien years later the estimate was about £302,000 and for the year 1913-14 the