PZ 5749/39(1) 'Propaganda: Articles forwarded to Persian Gulf, Kabul & Katmandu for dissemination' [‎335r] (669/715)

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and it would be out of place to mention them here. You will naturally not allow
yourself to be drawn into any discussion of them or of the plans we have made to
deal with them, the disclosure of which to any Government, however friendly,
would involve the risk of leakage.
I am, &c.
HALIFAX.
Enclosure.
(A) Germany.
ALTHOUGH the Germans have built up an enormous fagade of military
strength with which their propaganda machine seeks to impress the world, there
are many chinks in the German armour of which the Germans themselves are
only too painfully aware.
In the first place, there is in Germany to-day a serious shortage of trained
reserves, a shortage which causes the Higher Command to admit in conversation
that the German army to-day is nothing like as efficient as it was in 1914. It
must be borne in mind that the Germans have only had compulsory military
service since 1934; that is to say, only two classes of trained conscripts have passed
to the reserve, in addition to the ex-soldiers and others who have had short
refresher courses. Not only is there, therefore, a serious shortage of reservists,
but what is still more serious, it has been impossible to create an efficient corps of
reserve officers. Even the active units of the German army are to-day short of
officers, and there is no means of filling this lacuna.
Secondly, the Germans are sufiering from a lack of the raw materials
necessary for the prosecution of a long war. It had been hoped, for example, to
manufacture synthetic petrol on a scale sufficient to supply German peace-time
needs, without imports from abroad. I his calculation has miscarried, owing to
the fact that the motorisation of the army, the expansion of the air force, and°the
requirements of the civilian population have in the last two years outstripped all
expectations. For war purposes the Germans are still therefore dependent on
imported petrol, and it is not believed that they possess sufficient stocks to carry
on for more than six months.
Thirdly, although there is enough food in Germany to feed the population,
the margin is very narrow, and it is doubtful whether,'under the strain of war|
a food shortage would not develop. As it is, the situation to-day is not unlike that
obtaining in Germany in 1916. To embark on a European war in these circum
stances would be a highly hazardous undertaking, and most foreigners who know
Germany well declaie categoi ically that until the food situation has been
improved, war must be out of the question.
Fourthly, the morale of the population leaves much to be desired. There is
no doubt that Herr Hitler could launch a war, and that the people would not refuse
to march; but there is not the enthusiasm which there was in 1914, and though
initial successes might rally the population to the Government, most observers are
agreed that in the event of a long war it is almost certain that we should witness
a repetition of the events of 1918.
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