Coll 30/204 ‘Persian Gulf Oil. Future of oil in its relation to the Middle East – Admiralty Memorandum on –’ [‎27r] (53/66)

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The European share of American production in 1S38 v/as:-
Tons
ex UoSoA* .o« 00 o coo 9 S Io 6 /boo ( 5~£% of production)
ex Mexico and South America 11 5 500 9 000 (32% of production)
In addition about 1 million tons came from TRINIDAD -
a valuatie imperial asset, but, in the large statistical
perspective 9 not an important one»
The undeveloped resources 9 possibly of MEXICO and COLOMBIA
almost certainly of VENEZUELA, are known to be very great;
indeed in the aggregate they may not be far short of the Uo£«A.
reserves; consequently their contribution towards supplementing
failing resources elsewhere is bound to be considerable; but,
as previously stated, the most favourably placed client in such
a contingency is the United Stateso
All of which leads to the conclusion that it Y;ould be
rash to rely on continuity of large American oil supplies to
Europe and elsewhere for any considerable number of years to
come 0
(11) ASIA ,
Excluding T J 9 S 0 SoR<,, (for reasons already given), the
continent of Asia may be considered as divided into two
sections - Far East and Middle East - which, for the purposes
of this review, may be taken as the territories East and West
of 60° E, longitude 0
(a) FAR E/ST ,
In the Far East the developed resources of the Dutch
East Indies, Borneo, Burma, Sakhalin and Japan
(representing an annual production of about 10 A million
tons) are barely sufficient to balance the needs of
territories east of 60° E, the 1958 consumption of which
was approximately 10 million tons - Japan (three million)
and India (two million) heading the list,
| Exploratory work continues in the Dutch East Indies,
Burma, India, etc,, and new discoveries may offset the
gra(Subtdr^xhaustion of old oilfields, and even lead to an
appreciable increase in production, but it is believed
that there has been no reliable indication of the
existence of oil structures in any way comparable with
those in America and the Middle East,
As and when a period of political stabilisation is
entered upon the industrial demands of the Far East are
far more likely to increase than to diminish, and
consequently there seems a reasonable case for the
provisional conclusion that these areas are on balance,
more likely to be buyers than sellers in the oil markets
of the future,
(b) MIDDLE EAST .
The countries comprising the areas to which, from an
oil point of view, supreme importance must be attached
fall into two groups, viz:-