‘Bagdad Ry’ [‎14v] (28/129)

M)
(F.), passim.
(A.), p. 83.
(C.), p. 5.
(D.), O’Conor’s 107
of 31/8/1903.
4
Ocoan, and the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. ; and, secondly, with the large pilgrim traffic that moves
every year between India and Iverbela, on the Euphrates.
It is difficult to discern how either our general consideration in the eyes of the
Arabs or our particular position as the local protector of the Shia* section of the
Mahommedan faith are to benefit by the introduction of a new and powerful Frankish
nation in this part of the Ottoman Empire.
There is also little doubt that any loss of prestige we might thereby sustain would
react on our position in Southern and Western Persia, and probably still further
afield in the more central countries of Asia.
1*2. The question as to how British commercial prospects are likely to he affected
is more within the province of the Board of Trade. The trade of Bagdad and
Bussorah was in 1903 valued at some 2,500,000/. Most of this was British or Indian,
and, in addition, we do about half the carrying trade on the River Tigris, the other
half being in the hands of an Ottoman Company belonging to the Sultan. Is this
British trade likely to be increased or diminished by the advent of an all-German
railway ?
13. The following is the opinion of Sir N. R. O’Conor ( (A), p. 33) :—
“ Nor must it he forgotten that the Railway Concession carries with it many
valuable privileges and advantages. Apart from the large orders for materials for
railway construction, &c., it secures extensive mining rights on each side of the line,
the right of navigation of the Tigris and Euphrates during the construction of the
railway—a concession which will probably be unlimitedly extended—a commercial
outlet either at Koweit or elsewhere in the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. , an exceptionally favourable
position in the future for all enterprise connected with the irrigation of Mesopotamia, &c.
Moreover, it can hardly be supposed that no effort will be made to supplant British
navigation in its privileged position in the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. , and to take advantage of the
opportunity to compete with British shipping in those waters.
Sir G. Clarke, in the Committee of Imperial Defence Memorandum of January
1905, says:—
“ We are therefore confronted with a project which, if carried out under German
auspices, will undoubtedly inflict grave injury upon our commerce ”
Mr. Waugh, Vice-Consul at Constantinople, who prepared a Memorandum on the
whole question in August 1903, comes to the conclusion—
“ That, in the event of the development of the country, the Bagdad Railway in
German hands might be made a powerful instrument for furthering German commerce
to the detriment of its rivals.”
Dr. Rohrbach is evidently of the opinion that German trade is going to
benefit by the railway, which, taking into account the usual German methods
towards their commercial rivals, is unlikely to mean that British trade will benefit
also.
14. A more detailed consideration of the terms of the Concession itself, and of the
various rights it gives, beyond those enumerated in the preceding Article, such as con
struction of brick and tile factories, establishment of warehouses, quays, and ports,
and free use of water power for electricity, shows that the commercial possibilities the
Germans have in their possession are by no means small. They have already instituted
a system of Commercial Agents in Anatolia Peninsula that forms most of modern-day Turkey. , they are planning an agricultural hank,
and it can hardly be doubted that their skill in the imposition of preferential rates will
be exercised in the future. Particularly anxious would they be to oust us from the
Tigris navigation, and with the Sultan, who is himself personally interested in the
enterprise, to assist them, they would no doubt succsed in their desires in time.
Sir W. Willcocks (p. 27) even suggests that with the development of irrigation the
r \ igris stream may fail for navigation purposes, in which case our steamer service
would not have very encouraging prospects.
15. Accordingly, it would appear, again, to be very unwise to assume that British
trade would not find itself in a worse position than it is in at present were an
all-German line to the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. to be constructed. We should be unlikely to receive
* the Shia Mahommedans belong generally to India and Persia, the Sunnis (orthodox), to Turkey and
Afghanistan.' J