'Seistan' [‎389r] (781/782)

have recently submitted to them plans for counter-action in such a contingency,
involving the seizure of certain Persian islands or harbours, m self-protec ion
and retaliation, by ourselves. But neither would the action be connned to
Russia and Great Britain. Prance and Germany would unquestionably appear
upon the scene. The disastrous contagion of Kiao-chow would be reproduced;
and the Persian Gulf—for 100 years, so far as political predominance is
concerned, a British lake—would become a second Gulf of Pechih, to he
quarrelled over and parcelled out by the greed of rival Powers. Ihis is no
fanciful picture of the imagination. It is an indisputable deduction from the
circumstances of the case.
19. Finally, let me contemplate the effect that would be produced by the
concession of a Persian railway and a Persian port to Russia upon the general
problem of Indian defence. A glance at the map "will show that India would
then be surrounded in a ring fence by Russia and her ally. Following this
line from West to East I have already shown the position at which Russia
aims as threatening the entire western borders of Baluchistan and Afghanistan
from the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. to Herat. Herat itself could be taken by the Russians
in less than three weeks. From Herat to the Oxus the Afghan frontier is at
the mercy of the Russian forces. The course of the Oxus from Charjui to
the Pamirs is now under their control. They can cross it at any point at any
time without our knowledge and without the possibility of interruption. W e
are obliged even now to keep a close watch upon the northern passes of the
Hindu Kush. East of the Pamirs, the Russians have already taken up a
position in the Taghdumbash Pamir, which will presently make their frontier
adjacent to our own on the Mustagh Range. The fall of Kashgar and Chinese
Turkistan is absolutely certain and cannot very much longer be delayed. Tibet
will still intervene between Russian territory and our own on the north ; but
already rumours of a Russian Protectorate have been heard, and a mission from
Lhasa has been received by the Tsar. On the extreme east of British territory
in Burma, we encounter the rival ambitions and expanding influence of France,
whose aspirations do not fall short of the complete absorption of the kingdom of
Siam. It is far from improbable that within twenty, perhaps within twelve,
years from the present time, the metaphor previously employed will have been
justified, and the Indian Empire, along the complete length of its land frontiers,
will be coterminous with the territories, and confronted with the ambitions, of
Powers whose interests are on the whole inimical to its own. In such a case—
and it is no idle dream of fancy, as the future will show—we shall not be able
to move, to strike, to advance, in any part of the world where French or Russian
interests are involved, because of the menace that will stand perpetually at our
Indian doors. Of the strain upon Indian finances, I do not at present speak :
but it would be altogether in excess of our means. In this ring fence there are
at present three gaps : the still independent kingdom of Siam on the east, the
portion of whose territories lying nearest to the Indian frontier has been
guaranteed by a Convention between Great Britain and France; on the north
the upland wilds of Tibet, as yet impervious to alien intrusion ; and on the
west the dominions of the Shah. These are the sole remaining buffers that
separate the Asiatic possessions of Great Britain from her European rivals. It
rests with British statesmanship to retain all three intact. But it will sacrifice
the most important of their number if it knowingly concedes to Russia that
gratification of her ambition in Eastern Persia, the consequences of which to
the British Empire it has been the object of this Minute to expose.
October 28th, 1901. Curzon.
Foreign Office Press—No. 1615—2-11-01—54,

'Seistan' [‎389r] (781/782)

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'Seistan' [‎389r] (781/782)

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