'A strategical study of Persia and the Persian Gulf' [‎94] (102/150)

94
(2) Vid Parali and Anardara to Juwain, 218 miles, fit fof
field artillery with supplies available at 10 out of 18
stages. This route was traversed by the Afghan
Boundary Mission in 1884 with 1,200 men, 660 horses
and mules and 1,200 camels.
The capacity of either route may be taken as a brigade in one
echelon marching with 10 days' supplies. Considerable quantities
of supplies are available at Juwain and its immediate neighbour
hood. By using both routes, the Russians might, therefore, con
centrate 10,000—12,000 men at Juwain in 20—25 days from Herat
or 50—55, say 60, days from the date of orders to mobilize.
From Juwain to Nasratabad is 60—=70 miles according to the
route chosen, when the Helmand is in flood a considerable detour
to the east having to be made.
The Russians might, therefore, occupy Slstan with 12,000 men
from Herat in about 70 days from the date of orders to mobilize
and subsequently increase that force up to the capacity of the
district for supply. Further advance into Persia would, however,
be barred by the Dasht-i-Lut.
(6) Turkish objectives, possible lines of advance towards them, and
rate of development of force along each line.
93. The Turks might advance from Asia Minor and Mesopota
mia
(а) from Van vid Kh5I on Tabriz;
(б) from Baghdad vid Khaniqin on Kirmanshah ;
(c) from Basrah on Muhammareh or Kuwait.
94. From Van to Khoi, about 130 miles on a road fit for wheels,
(a) An advance from Van. with fair quantities of supplies, thence
to Tabriz 96 miles on a road of the
same description. As stated in paragraph 47, information is not
available from which to make an estimate of the possible rate of
concentration of Turkish troops in this neighbourhood. From a
comparison with paragraphs 42 and 78 it is evident that any advance
could be met by superior Russian forces concentrated by rail at
Julfa. There is no physical obstacle to such an advance, however,
and the possibility of the Turks advancing with a force of even
20,000 men and at the same time raising the Kurdish tribesmen of