'A strategical study of Persia and the Persian Gulf' [‎104] (112/150)

104
if) That there are good positions to the north of the Oman
Peninsula for the establishment of a British naval base and
coaling station, which would ensure our command of the
exit from the Gulf in the future. . .
3. From Part II we learn that while the declared policy of both
Russia and Great Britain is to maintain the integrity of Persia, it ia
evidently in'the interests of Russia to take over Northern Persia, just
as it is in that of Great Britain to maintain the status quo. But it is
also clear that it is in the interests of the trade of both Powers to
establish an efficient government in Persia, while the necessity for
this will be pressed with even greater insistence with the completion
of the Baghdad Railway and its branches and the development of the
trade interests of Germany and other Powers through this channel
into Persia. Meanwhile the Persian Government shows no signs of
being able to maintain order in the country, while it gradually in
creases its debt to foreign Powers without making any permanent
advance towards increased efficiency. Its officials are unpatriotic
and corrupt and govern more in their own personal interests than
that of the country they nominally serve. Under such circumstances
a change of policy leading to the partition of Persia seems inevitable
sooner or later.
4. When that time comes, it is clear that the armed forces of
Russia, which she possesses for use in support of her policy, will
be greatly superior to those of any other Power. Great Britain, while
still predominant everywhere along the coast of the Gulf, will have
to reckon in future with the navies of other Powers having growing
interests in Mesopotamia and Persia, Turkey, although a military
power of some strength, will take many years to recover from the
results of the Balkan War, and will count for little in Persian politics
for a long time to come. It is possible, however, that the loss of
a great portion of her European possessions, and the consequent
decrease of her responsibilities in the West, may eventually lead
to an increase of energy and efficiency in Asia Minor and her out
lying Asiatic provinces, which have hitherto been regarded as of
minor importance. With the advent of railways in Persia the
power of Russia to use her armed forces over larger portions of
Persia will steadily increase, and later on the same remark will
apply to Turkey, and possibly to Germany, as the interests of the
two latter countries increase in Asia Minor and Mesopotamia.
5. An abstract of the power of the principal countries concerned
to develop forces at different places in Persia under present conditions
i.e., before the advent of railways, is given in the following table.