File 3874/1908 'Railways:-Trans-Persian Railway.' [‎66v] (134/536)

To facilitate action when the time comes, it would appear advisable to
start railway surveys from Nushki, Hobat and Bandar Abbas with the least
possible delay.
11. Of the financial success of the line itself I do not think that there
is any reason to be sceptical. Whatever the discomfort of the long rail journey
compared to that by sea to Europe from the East may be, it is but reasonable
to expect that the majority of travellers will be tempted to use the former
route, either from motives of economy or from desire to traverse the
countries through which the line will run. This will apply not only to
travellers to and from India but to those between Australia and China.
The number of through passengers on which the estimate of income is based
may appear large at first sight, but I do not think that it is unduly so. On
the other hand, I am inclined to think that the receipts from local passengers
have been under rather than over estimated. The amount of local traffic which
a railway creates even in the most unpromising areas is often surprising. As
an instance of this I may quote the line from Quetta to Nushki. When the
construction of the line was under consideration the prospect of a remuner
ative local traffic was hardly thought worthy of being taken into account
owing to the seemingly uninhabited area it traversed. Nevertheless, the
amount of local traffic has been such as to convert what was feared would
he an unremunerative strategic line into a commercially profitable one.
Similarly, there is considerable reason to suppose that the line onward will, in
Persia, develop a local traffic of a more extensive and lucrative nature than
that now estimated for.
Incidentally the through traffic on the proposed line will tend to increase
the receipts of the Indian systems to a very considerable extent, by attracting
many passengers through India who would otherwise travel by sea without
setting foot in this country. It is necessary to give due credit to this factor,
and also to the additional income from the carriage of the increased bulk
of Indo-Persian goods on Indian lines, when considering the question of
guarantees to the new undertaking.
12. It is necessary next to regard the proposal from the political and mili
tary point of view. This can best be done together, as the difficulty of separat
ing political from military considerations is very considerable, and for this
reason only do I venture to trespass on military ground.
We are now brought face to face with new problems, and strong though
the. inclination may be to avoid their consideration by opposing the proposal
ab initio, it is necessary to tackle them seriously and impartially.
In the first place, the proposed railway line through Persia involves the
necessity of ensuring its safety throughout its length. It is unreasonable to
expect a lucrative passenger or goods traffic, if the line has to run, in turn, the
gauntlet of Bakhtiari brigands or disappointed and exasperated Afghan gun
runners. It will have to be safeguarded from both.
The existence of the line will itself facilitate measures for dealing with
troubles of this nature, but the real difficulty which the protection of the lino
involves is one common to several other questions connected with its construc
tion and maintenance, i.e., its relation to the future of the Persian Government.
In this case the adequate protection of the line affects the future not only
of a railway but of a^ nation. On the ability of the Persian Government to
meet its responsibilities in regard to the line depends the consolidation or dis
integration of Persian autonomy. On this again depends the effect of the line
on the military and political problems of India.
n ■^ e ? c ^ es ® that any support we give to the present proposal should
be based on the determination to prevent its adoption leading to the disinte
gration of Persia, and all our efforts should be directed towards making the
line a means of strengthening the authority of the Persian Government.
13. Assuming that we enter into the project only on the above under
standing, we can now consider the more important problem, i.e .;—
• t w hl the existence of the proposed line have on our position
m India r Given assurance of perpetual continuance of amicable relations