Coll 30/22 'Persian Gulf, Bahrein. Bahrein State Budget; Question of Successor to British Adviser to Shaikh of Bahrain' [‎11v] (22/66)

Mr. Stock, however, also says that American practice
in estimating oil reserves is conservative and in view of
Mr. Russell Brown's confidence the acceptance of fifty
years as the official estimate seems very reasonable.
Mr. Stock's fears for the marketability of Bahrein oil
may also go too far. As the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. is the largest
source of oil in the Sterling Area, the whole of whose needs
it cannot meet unaided, and as dollars are likely to be
scarce for the next fiftyfive years (until the full repayment
of the American Loan), the demand for G-ulf oil seems unlikely
to fall off.
A more likely hazard is perhaps the political one -
not indeed so much the ultimate risk that the Russians by
obtaining control of the Straits of Hormuz might prevent
oil shipment altogether (though even then we might use all
Bahrein could produce for aircraft anei transit) - but the
genuine danger of curtailed
payments, by artificially fermented
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production, and thus of royalty //T
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At all events the prospects for Bahrein certainly seem
bright enough to justify Mr. Belgrave in initiating a more
forward budgetary policy. In the later of his two attached
letters Colonel Hay, as was expected, takes a more tolerant
view than Sir Geoffrey Prior of Mr. Belgrave, but considers
that twenty years in the Gulf have left their mark and that
he should certainly retire in December 1949 when he reaches
the age of fif-tyfive, if he cannot be induced to do so sooner.
We shall shortly have to suggest to the Sheikh the appointment
of an assistant adviser, who would succeed Mr. Belgrave when
the latter retires.
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