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what he hns said. On the other hand, we think that we are in a position to fill
in the outlines of his sketch with a good deal of additional detail; and it will
be our duty to discuss the situation from the standpoint more particularly of
those Indian interests, of which we are the constituted guardians.
12. The political destinies of a country and a Government, as weak as we
have stated those of Persia to he, are likely to be determined in the main by her
geographical position in relation to her neighbours. Of the four foreign
Powers whose territories adjoin her own, two may he eliminated from the present
discussion as being themselves lacking in the strength or vitality, likely to
render their influence decisive, or their aggression to be feared. These are
Turkey and Afghanistan, the latter of which, moreover, is under engagements
with Great Britain that render it impossible for her to be considered, in her
foreign relations, as an independent Power. There remain Russia and Great
Britain. There is a curious correspondence, but there are also notable differ
ences, between the positions of these two Powers vis a vis with Persia. The
entire northern frontier of Persia is now contiguous with Russian territory,
with the exception of that portion which borders upon the Caspian Sea—a
distinction, but not a difference, inasmuch as that sea has to all intents and
purposes been converted into a Russian lake. Russian territory also overlaps
the north-east corner of the Persian dominions. Great Britain enjoys a some
what similar preponderance of influence on the south, by virtue of her hitherto
unchallenged supremacy, both naval and commercial, in the Persian Gulf The historical term used to describe the body of water between the Arabian Peninsula and Iran. ;
while, owing to recent developments on the side of Baluchistan, her land
territories also touch those of Persia upon the south-east. But there are these
broad differences between the two positions: firstly, that whereas the Russian
territories that are limitrophe with Persia on the north are continuous either
with those of European or with those of Asiatic Russia, the immense resources
of both of which dominions can be brought by a skilfully designed system of
railways, and deposited with little trouble and with no delay, upon the Persian
frontier itself—the forces of Great Britain, if required for purposes either of
menace or attack, would require to be conveyed by sea and would be separated
by a great distance from their base; the land connection on the Perso-Baluch
sfde being as yet too precarious and remote to admit of its being taken into
serious consideration in the present context; secondly, that whereas the Russian
land approaches upon the north are in her own exclusive possession, the
maritime access of Great Britain on the south is equally open to any other
Power possessing a naval marine. Hence the marked and inevitable distinction
between the power of persuasion or menace possessed by Russia in the north,
as compared with that at the disposal of Great Britain in the south, the
advantage enjoyed by the former being enhanced by the fact that the Persian
capital and Court are situated in the northern or Russian and not in the southern
or British zone of influence.
13. In these circumstances it is not surprising to read of the increasing
and indisputable supremacy which Russia has established in Northern Persia,
as described by Sir M. Durand. While not repeating his demonstration, we
may supplement it by saying that, while we think that no efforts should be
spared to safeguard so much as is left to us of the trade that enters the country
by the Trebizond-Tabriz route, of the trade of Tehran, and of that of North-
East Persia (concerning which it may be noted that the imports into IVTcshed
from British India which in 1893-94 represented a value of £198,500 and in
1894-95 of £312,000, have in 1897-98. sunk to £130,000), and while as long
as the capital remains at Tehran, which is also the centre of important British
interests in the shape of the Telegraph administration and the Imperial Bank
of Persia, it is essential that British influence there. should be asserted on a
scale as nearly as possible equivalent to that of Russia we are yet of opinion
that the advantages enjoyed by Russia in the field under discussion are so over
whelming as to render any attempt to dispute or to shake her position there
fruitless; and that our own energies can with greater wisdom and with superior
chances of success be directed towards the protection and consolidation of the