Papers on British policy and the Arab movement [‎110v] (224/380)

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(d.) That a non-Turkish Cilicia is absolutely necessary if the Arab State i be^
secured in the future against penetration from the north, whether hostile
or still more pacific (the lifter very subtle, dangerous and certain)..
(e.) That Syria be treated as an entity apart from either Mesopotamia and Iraq
or Hejaz.
(/.) That Arab leaders receive, as soon as possible, explicit assurances on above
points. The recent Joint Declaration will not reassure any of them by any
means. They will see that France can find an easy loophole to Protectorate
or Annexation in the phrase “ eftectivement etabhs, and that "wholesale
tutelage is assumed in the wording of the last part.
6. Armenia.—So far as I can see, the only “ Armenia ” which we shall be able to
constitute and guarantee is the old Kingdom of Cilicia and Aorth Syria. It contains
many non-Armenian elements, notably Kurds, Turcomans and Yuraks, as well as
Nusairi and Afghans, &c. Its boundaries ought roughly to be prolonged from the Geuk
Su mouth on the west along the ridge of laurus and up to Gurun on the lokhma Su ,
thence to Divnk ; thence down the Euphrates to east of Kharput and thence by
Suwarek to Birejik. Thence by Tel Bashar to the northern horn of Alexandretta Bay
(near Payas). # . . .
Into this area Armenians from the rest of the “ six vilayets should be invited to
migrate. Probably some compulsion will be necessary. Ihese \ilayets aie so largely
Kurdish that they cannot make a satisfactory “Armenia, and whoever polices them
(and someone must, unless Turkey is strengthened and restored there, which, in view of
her connection with massacres in all that region, is deeply to be deprecated) must be
prepared to put in a strong force for 50 years, and expect little return but the
traditional reward of virtue.
If there is no, or very little, migration into an Armenian Cilicia, the latter will
never be able to develop its agriculture. The American Armenian is almost always a
skilled artizan or a professional man.
7. North Mesopotamia —This must be distinct from Iraq—a separate native State
with Mosul or Urfa for capital. How far it will extend north will depend on the
Khurds. These last affect Arab manners, and may well throw in their lot with an
Arab State in considerable numbers. The more of them who will do so in the six
vilayets the better.
8. Turkey. —The Anatolian population is the most stable and solid in Wbst Asia.
It ought to remain independent under a Moslem Pow r er, though perhaps Smyrna and. a
small enclave An area of land belonging to one country and entirely surrounded by land of just one other country. should be Greek. All islands Greek of course. Italy has no business in
the dEgean, still less in Asia Minor, and her Adalia claim would lead to endless trouble.
In my view the future Ottoman State should be all Anatolia Peninsula that forms most of modern-day Turkey. , with Brusa as capital, and
the “six vilayets” detached under a European Protectorate.
(Signed) D. G. HOGARTH.
General Staff,
War Offick
\bth November, 1918.