The Fortnightly Review: No. CCCCLXIII, New Series [‎668r] (226/239)

CORRESPONDENCE.
195
of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, which may now be regarded as
practically settled.
What chances has peace of success? That depends upon Russia,
an element which is very difficult to be sure of. It is, however,
piactically certain that peace will come, but not by any means
at once, unless there is some unprecedented happening in St.
Petersburg. The Russian Government is at the end of her tether,
internally, and must stop, because of outside pressure. Therefore,
the delay will mean rather frantic efforts to save Russia’s face than
determination to carry on the war at all costs. Just as China sought
to save her prestige when treating with Japan, so Russia is jockeying
for an advantageous start in the negotiations. Russia thinks if only
it can be made out that Japan asked for the conference in order
to submit peace terms for Russian consideration, there will be less
humiliation about it. But Russia may as well dismiss these hallu
cinations from her fevered brain at once. Japan can beat her at
diplomacy, especially when she holds all the winning cards. Japan
will present terms to a fully accredited plenipotentiary when he asks
for them, but otherwise she will not waste time. If it is considered
necessary for Japan to hold some Russian territory so as to treat
on the indemnity question to better advantage, the Ussuri Province
lies open to her ships and troops. There will be no question of send
ing vessels to the Baltic to attack Russia at home. Japan has too
keen a sense of international morality, as well as too much common
sense. Besides, she can attain her ends without such expedients.
A Russian refusal to treat only means that Manchuria will remain
in Japanese occupation, and naturally the development of this rich
country would fall into Japanese hands. The General Staff at Tokyo
calculate that it will not cost much more to keep the Japanese troops
in Manchuria than in Japan, and so, if it be necessary, the Japanese
are well prepared to go on.
Peace will, however, ultimately arrive, because of international
reasons, but it is equally certain that the preliminaries will drag on
long enough to enable General Linievitch to have a chance of snatch
ing something like a victory from Marquis Oyama. Hopeless as this
chance is, the Russian sentiment is favourable to letting him see what
he can do. The Japanese do not object, save because of the casualties,
and are confident that they can overwhelm the Russian hosts in a still
more wholesale fashion than at Mukden. With Linievitch defeated,
the last Russian card is gone, and Manchuria will be clear of the
enemy.
How little hope the Russians have of victory, and how resigned
they are to the inevitable, may be gathered from the fact that M.
Witte has arranged to travel to Paris to negotiate an indemnity loan
for Russia. Briefly, it may be said that peace will come when Russia
is sufficiently humbled to treat with Japan openly on an equal level,
and not till then. There are signs that this frame of mind is coming
on. The conclusion of peace will present the curious consummation
of the fact that the first step was due to the most warlike of
Sovereigns, the German warlord, however unwilling he may be to
pose as the guardian of international tranquillity.
Alfred Stead.
June, 17^.