مجموعة ٢٨ /٩٧ "بلاد فارس. يوميّات. ملخصات استخباراتية خاصة بطهران" [و‎‎١‎٢‎٢] (٧٤٩/٢٤٣)

Sir R. Bullard to Mr. Eden.—(Received 20th August.)
(No. 330.)
HIS Majesty’s representative presents his compliments to His Majesty’s
Principal Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, and has the honour to transmit
herewith a copy of Intelligence Summary No. 32 for the period of the 3rd to the
9th August, 1943, compiled by the military attache to this legation.
Tehran, \0th August, 1943.
(Secret.)
Enclosure.
Military Attache's Intelligence Summary No. 32 for the Period the 3rd to the
0th August, 1943.
V
Persian A if airs.
Political.
1 . Events seem to be leading to a gradual, but ultimately complete,,
breakdown of Government and-of the administration, or to a violent change dr
regime. Insecurity, indiscipline and disorder are spreading. There is an absolute
lack of confidence in the Government, and despair and pessimism are general
because no better Government can be seen. Ali Mansur has refused to be a
candidate for the premiership, and Soheily remains, because there is no one else,
proving day by day his inability to check the increasing chaos, to which the
electioneering manoeuvres of parties, some stirring up the working classes, others
taking counter-measures, add confusion and disorder. Government employees,
starving on inadequate pay, are ready to revolt. Genuine alarm has been caused
by Dr. Millspaugh's regulation prohibiting any purchase of grain except from
Government stores. Families have too little "faith in the Government to be
confident that there will be any grain in the Government stores to buy. Faith
in the ability of Dr. Millspaugh, even with the very wide powers he has, to reduce
the cost of living or improve the position of the poor and middle classes is
waning, so that, while certain of the opposition of the rich, he cannot rely on
much support from the poor. Confidence in the American advisers in all
departments is decreasing even among those who saw in them a hope of salvation.
The financial resources of the Government are nearly at an end. while increasing
insecurity makes increasing demands on them.
2 . The one courageous and relatively strong man in the Government is the
Minister for War, General Ahmadi. If he were given real authority over the
army he might steady the tottering fabric, but the Shah and many others fear
that he would then become too powerful, so the army, like the State, remains
without any effective direction. The Shah loses favour daily with the people, and
as an element of stability in the country the Crown now hardly counts for
anything. Indeed, it would be hard to find anything stable in Persia to-day or
any direction in which British influence can be applied to produce stability.
3. There is great unrest among under-paid Government employees. Strikes
have already occurred in the Ministry of Justice, and others are threatened in
other departments and services of public utility. Dr. Millspaugh, in a statement
in the press, has appealed to Government employees to be patient a little longer
with their hardships, of which he is fully aware. He explains that the State has,
in fact, no money, but that he has appealed for help and hopes that it will be
forthcoi
St. S*t.