‘Seistan Persia & Seistan’ [‎157r] (322/617)

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P lessnre Of Russia along her northern border from the Caucasus
T) d ’ an( | S ^ 1G regaras as almost certain the eventual absorption of Northern
Persia m the dominions of the Tsar. As almost all the leading men at the
heaa-quarters of the Government are northerners, and as the capital itself is in
the north, this has a very marked effect upon policy. The Shah and his
.o\eminent seem to be constantly haunted and oppressed by the sense of their
proxml my to liussia. d’hcrc can, in fact, be no doubt that in Tehran the
influence of Russia is predominant, and I am afraid there can be no doubt that
m is antagonistic to our own. I may add that, according to general belief, the
influence of Russia is steadily exerted to thwart any measure of reform or
progiess m Persia to prevent anything which could tend to strengthen and
sOxiduy the country, and arrest its downward course.
5. 1 his is one aspect of the case, and it must be admitted that, both with
regard to the internal condition of Persia and with regard to her foreign
relations, we have some ground for disquieting thought. The Sadr-i-Azam,
when in-one of his dismal moods, is fond of saying that all is hopeless that
there is not a gleam of light anywhere. But there is something to he said on
the other side, and I will state briefly what seem to me to he the more hopeful
features of the case.
6 . In the first place, with regard to the internal condition of the country,
it seems to me that the prevailing disorganization is not in itself of a desperate
natuie. It is true that things are out of order, from the European point of view,
but 1 doubt whether they are much more out of order than they ordinarily are
in an Asiatic State. In some w T ays there has been a considerable advance in
Persia during the last twenty years. For example, trade lias increased, and a
more or less regular system of posts and telegraphs has been established.
Judged by an Asiatic standard, Persia is, in fact, not very far gone. I have
seen native States in India in a worse condition, and have seen them rapidly
recover prosperity when taken in hand by the Indian Government. Though
the finances are in disorder, Persia has great natural resources, and practically
no debt. That is the foundation of everything, and a capable official, with
some power of organization, could, in a few' years, if given a free hand and
supported by the Shah, make Persia a very flourishing country. The people,
with all their falseness, are intelligent and docile. They are obedient to their
Shah, whom they regard as the first monarch in the world, and their lazy
good temper, and want of fanaticism, make them easy to manage. Even the
recurring deficits are not so serious a matter in Persia as they would be else
where. Every one is accustomed to irregularity in the payment of salaries, and
the salary of a Persian forms a comparatively unimportant part of his income.
Salary or no salary, he makes his living somehow—the soldier chiefly by money-
lending, and the civil official by extortion of various kinds, A considerable
part of the deficit, too, is caused by the existence of an excessive pension list;
and wdien the Treasury is short of money the pensions are not paid—-which is
rather an advantage than otherwise.* Altogether, though the condition of
Persia is certainly more or less dangerous, it is not, in my opinion, really
desperate—not such that one need look for an immediate or very speedy
dissolution from internal causes. If the Persians ivere left to themselves they
would probably get along well enough in their own slovenly way for generations
to come, and a very moderate measure of reform would make the country as
prosperous as it ever need he.
7. Again, though Russian influence is the strongest foreign influence in
Tehran, and though it is generally believed that Russia is cynically working
for the ruin of the country,f yet it is very evident that the influence of Russia
is by no means exclusive or unlimited. It may be stated with tolerable
accuracy that no other European Continental nation carries any weight at all
in Persia, but England undou btedly carries great wei ghty
CHavmg regardTo the geographical position oFRussia, it seems to
strange that w T e should be as strong as we are. In spite of the indifference
m(
* It is said that for less than one year’s payment made to himself the Shah will often continue
a lapsed pension for another life. He gets the ready money, and the Treasury is responsible for
the pension. 150/. paid to the Shah a few weeks ago secured a life pension of 200/. a-year. ■
H. M. D.
f I have seen no proof of this.—H. M. D.
Hostility of Russia t©
reform.
Despondency of
Sadr-i-Azam.
Disorganization not of
a desperate nature.
Limits to Russiant
influence.
British influences