"ملخص لمراسلات، إلخ، تتعلق بشؤون آسيا الوسطى، بلوشستان، بلاد فارس، إلخ، ١٨٧٥-١٨٧٧. مع ملاحق." [ظ‎‎٧‎٠] (٥٦٢/١٤٥)

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India • and we shall then he bound, beyond escape, to accept, in a hopelessly unfavourable posi
tion, the struggle for supremacy in the East, whenever that struggle is forced upon us.
“To sum iro then—we believe that the occupation of Kizil Arvat is an important step
towards the speedy conquest of Merv and the whole Tekke Turkoman country, that the oecn-
pation of Merv is a step towards which the Russians are compelled by considerations of s «h
weight as must override any mere protests on our part or promises on theirs ; that this event is
a certainty, unless prevented by action on our part; that the occupation of Merv will greatly
strengthen the military position of Russia m the East for the exercise of a commanding m-
fluenee inevitably, directly, and most powerfully, prejudicial to oui own ; and that it will be
necessarily followed by complications with the Cabnl Government, involving the occupation of
Herat, and the extension of Russian sovereignty, or influence, over Afghanistan Feeling, as
we do that these events can be foretold with almost complete certainty, and duly recognising
the serious responsibility we should incur if we failed to consider and piovide lor them in time,
so far as it lies in our power to do so, we deem it our urgent duty to solicit from Her
Majesty's Government such an immediate and definite declaration of its Central Asian policy as
may enable ns to co-operate efficiently therewith, whenever the occasion for action (which will
probably be sudden, fugitive, and irrevocable) shall have arisen.
“ For unless we are to be always waiting upon Russia's action, and thus always considering
when we ought to be acting,—and acting when the time for action is passed away,—it is neces
sary that we should know beforehand at what point in Russia's progress action is to be taken by
us, and what the nature of that action is to be. _ As Central Asian affairs have long passed from
the sphere of purely Indian, into that of Imperial, politics; and as the decision of the questions
here reviewed must rest absolutely with the Government of Her Majesty; we whilst thus
unreservedly recording our own appreciation of their special importance at the present critical
moment, are anxious to assure Your Lordship of the gratitude with which we shall welcome
the earliest possible indication of the measures proposed, or sanctioned, by Her Majesty's
Government in reference to a matter so seriously, and so urgently, affecting the interests of
the Empire for whose security we are jointly responsible.
“ In considering the various courses open to us, we assume that we may put aside
that of absolute inaction under all contingencies. For we believe that there is no Statesman,
British or Indian, who is prepared to approve of the unopposed absorption of Afghanistan into
the Russian Empire, and the extension of the Russian power over the mountain tribes border
ing on India and the passes leading into its plains. At least, it has been repeatedly and
publicly asserted that England cannot permit such a contingency; and unless we are to turn
hack from all our past policy, and repudiate all our previous manifestos and declarations, this
must be put aside as out of the question.
“Many years ago, before the energy, skill, and resolute patience of Russian officers
had surmounted those natural obstacles on which British Statesmen then relied for the
maintenance of a safe distance between the extremities of the Russian and Indian Empires,
the following opinion was recorded by Lord Lawrence,*
the originator, and certainly the ablest exponent, of that
frontier policy now popularly known as the policy of f Mas
terly Inactivity^—No one, of course, can deny that the
advance of Russia in Central Asia is a matter which may
gravely affect the interests of England in India. No person can doubt, I admit, that the
approach of Russia towards our north-western frontier may involve us in great difficulties; and
this being the case, it will he a wise and prudent policy to maintain a thoroughly friendly
power between India and the Russian possessions in Central Asia. Nevertheless, it appears to
me clear that it is quite out of our power to reckon with any degree of certainty on the
attainment of this very desirable end. And, after deprecating the measures at that time
recommended by Sir Henry Rawlinson for the attainment of this end, His Lordship suggested
that, if we failed to arrive at a timely and secure understanding with Russia, we should ‘ give
that power to undeistand that an advance towards India beyond a certain point would entail
on her war in all parts of the world with England.'
„ ^ remains, then, to determine the point at which the British Government must
mterfeie, and the character of its interference. The first question we desire to submit to Her
Majesty s Government a question asked with increasing anxiety throughout Central Asia,
and by our own Native subjects—is whether Russia will be allowed by Her Majesty's Gov-
ernment to occupy Merv unopposed. The Government of the Czar has already been distinctly
informed that the British Government cannot view such step with indifference. Lord Derby,
m 1875, warned Count Sehouvaloff ‘ °f the great importance which the Indian Government
a e . 0 . erv > an _ 1( - danger to our relations which would ensure if it were meddled with;'
aiffi again with special reference to our occupation of Merv, His Lordship said that Her
Majesty s Government reserved to themselves the most complete liberty of action under all
futme contingencies as to the measures which may, in their opinion, be necessary.' It now
remain to decide whether any significance is to be attached to these words, or whether they
are to remain vague and empty threats. wuiub,
notice Jf them hv^Hpr 0 ^^ 1 ?^ S n^ eS t e d ^7 circumstances under consideration is, the
the Russian authorities in cTntml^"^^? 1 * stron gP™t<»t against the proceedings of
ducive to an y practical result. OntTxpcIZ The BrS
* Minute by Lord Lawrence, when
Viceroy, on a paper by Sir Henry
Rawlinson concerning the progress
of Russia in Central Asia.—Cal
cutta, 25th November 1868.