ملف ١٩٠٤/٢٧٦٤ الجزء ٢ "سكة حديد بغداد: مفاوضات عامة ١٩٠٨-١٩١٠." [ظ‎‎٢‎٠‎٢] (٧٩٩/٤١٣)

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guarantee unless she can undertake several other sections to make up the deficit; r
and for these Turkey will probably he unable to supply the money for some years.
If then, a financial group could he found to propose to Turkey and to Germany
to reconsider their railway concession and to build with German assistance a railw^-
that has prospects of immediate success, it is quite possible that a sound commercii
settlement would be arrived at.
Such a railway, and one recommended by several who know the country best,
would he from Alexandretta to Diarhekir via Aleppo. This would develop some of
the richest country, and, by assisting traffic towards Lake Van, might even attract the
trade which now passes via Erzeroam and Trebizond. The strategic value is also
considerable. Branches could be considered later as the country develops.
The line might cost to Aleppo 1,360,000/. (as estimated by the Germans), and
another 230 miles to Diarbekir at 7,000/. a mile gives, say, 3,000,000/. altogether for a
useful line 300 miles long instead of a useless line 125 miles costing 5,000,000/.
through the Taurus. . , J J ^ ,
Eor this line capital could probably be found without guarantees, certainly without
kilometric guarantees.
There °are, of course, several projects afloat, which presumably means there is
capital forthcoming; and certainly 1VI. Cattoni is backed by financial people to a
certain extent, and would build to Aleppo without financial guarantee.
It is probable that now is a favourable time to put such a project forward. Herr
von Gwinner’s article last July in the “ Contemporary Review” rather tends to show
that the Germans would consider a sound commercial alternative to their present
scheme in conjunction with others.
The railway through the Taurus is not yet begun, but it is reported that everything
is readv for an early start. There are two points of discussion between the Turks and
Germans at present:—
1 . The Germans want the line to come down to a place near Tarsus, and then to
go alongside the Mersina-Adana Railway to Adana, in order to save bad country.
The Turks want the line to come direct to Adana, as they say a new junction
would be created, which would lessen the importance of Tarsus and Adana, a question
of vested interests.
2. Going round via Alexandretta necessitates the railway running from Fayas to
Alexandretta along the seashore. The Turks say the Germans must build forts to
protect this coast-line; the Germans object to doing this, and in any case wish to know
what kind of forts and what expense will be required before they agree.
Yon der Goltz, when referred to, said protection by forts is unnecessary.
It would be a great opportunity lost if no one can be found to dome forward with
some such scheme and in combination with the Germans commercially, rather
than to allow' by sitting still a line to be built entirely under German control, and
which benefits neither Turkey, Germany, nor ourselves, at least as regards
commerce. _
S. E. NEWCOMBE.
October 16, 1909.
(So, §89.)
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