مجموعة ٢٨/٣٣ "بلاد فارس.، شؤون داخلية. الأحداث المحتملة عند وفاة الشاه." [و‎‎١‎٥] (١٠٨/٢٩)

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THU FUTURE OF PERSIA .
Introduction.
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In a recent demi-official Note on The Future of
Arabia an attempt was made to envisage, mainly from the point
of view of the Government of India, what would happen when
Bin Saud disappeared from that country - as of course he must
sooner or later. The point was made that his kingdom was a
" one man show w , and would probably collapse when his presence
was removed, with the consequences of a prolonged series of
raids on Palestine, Trans-Jordan, ’Iraq and Kuwait, and general
unrest along the Southern shores of the Persian Gulf. It is
significant that North of the Gulf also is a kingdom which -
to all appearances - likewise depends largely on the life of
one man - Reza Shah, and as a corollary to the future of
Arabia the future of Persia naturally follows.
Pre-War Persia.
1.
Pre-War Persia - a convenient term - may be said to
have existed not only up to the War, but through it and for
some years after its conclusion; its chief characteristics
were weakness on the part of the Central Government and an
absence of law and order throughout the provinces. Outside
the capital and the provincial towns the government writ ran
feebly if at all, the real powers in the countryside being the
tribal chiefs whose areas are so situated that they form a
broad encircling belt on all the Persian frontiers through
which the important trade and strategical routes must run to
reach the outside world. It is not too much to say that the
leading tribes of anyone area could have taken the provincial
capital