‘Persia – especially Seistan’ [‎182r] (362/949)

11
Some of such have introduced as a justification a new formula—inoppor
tune. Evolution must be allowed to take its own course—an excellent justifica
tion, but in this case all these persons forget that in this world nothing happens
by itself, and that all questions in the course of time only become more and
more entangled.
Persia in this sense has never had any luck, and still has no luck. At the
critical moment circumstances become so crystallized that it is impossible to
occupy oneself with them, and a new epoch is awaited years after.
Of late years we have made a historical blunder, in moving to the distant
south-east Manchuria—instead of our natural movement to the south. The
Manchurian business went too fast and unfavourably, and the Persian question
is again put aside for an indefinite time.
The usual justification of this is the desire to avoid a repetition of the case
in China. This question, however, is wrongly stated, as neither economically
nor socially can the two countries be compared. China has a population of
fully 400 , 000 , 000 , and Persia about 10 , 000 , 000 . In China the political system
is vigorous, and presents a striking example of strength and individuality;
while in Persia the whole system rests on verbal contract, and presents a picture
of complete dissolution.
The Chinese did not ask for a railway, as it gave them norhing but loss.
They opposed in a every way the invasion of the foreigner. The Persians on the
other hand, day and night prayed to Allah for the construction of a railway,
which will raise their civilzation and introduce justice and prosperity.
In China the whole patriotic mass of the people rose against the Europeans,
while in Persia this will never happen as there is no cohesion. There ; y
occur individual onslaughts of bandits, Kashkais or Beluchi, but a rising en
masse is difficult.
Einally, in political respects the projected line will not cause any partition
of Persia. Here there is nothing to divide; with the exception of the Karun
and Caspian provinces there are no plums. In the whole of the rest of the
territory of Persia Russia alone can find any advantage, and it is her excep
tional position which should remove all fear and cause her to push on.
It is a matter of perfect indifference, when the time arrives, for the English
to occupy themselves with the irrigation of the Karun, and then build the line
from Bagdad to Tehran. This we cannot prevent, as we have not prevented the
Germans receiving the Concession from the Sultan. We can only hinder them
when the railway is carried to Tehran. Till then Russia can do nothing.
On the whole, examining the Persian question from all sides, we see that
here there is no analogy with China, which only people who are quite ignorant
of Persia can discern.
It now remains only to examine the Allat-Chahbar. direction in strate
gical respects, and to discusss the degree of safety of this route. The section
Allat-Resht, as I have already said, is under the protection of our fleet on the
Caspian, and strategically presents a line of great importance, as it allows our
troops if moving on the capital of Persia, to avoid the unfriendly Caspian, which,
without a coast railway, may place the troops of the Caucasian military district
in a difficult position.
In the case of operations against the town of Tabreez, this line will serve as
a triple embracing base in conjuction with the Tiflis-Kars and Tiflis-Baku lines,
as further continued in the direction of Tehran, the line to Kazvm passes through
a mountainous district occupied by a nomad Kurd population, whose customs
leaving nothing to be desired as regards orderly and peaceful behaviour.
Prom the town of Kazvin to Tehran there is a purely Iranian population,
which will present no danger to the line. In general, the whole line from the
station of Allat to the town of Tehran will present no danger comparable to the
Manchurian. As a p oof of this may serve the “ Chaussee ” already built by
us. where, if there were destructions of turnpickes (two cases), this occuried
exclusively from misunderstandings for which we ourselves were to blame,
'these cases bore a purely private character, did not involve any loss of life or
the use of troops, and where settled by the mere intervention of the Consul.